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2026-03-14

The Western U.S. Could See A Rare Wet Slab Avalanche Cycle Next Weekend




Colorado and the Western U.S. will see a historic heat wave next week, with temperatures 20-30 degrees above average for this time of year. Freezing levels could crack 15,000 feet, and temperatures at the base areas of nearly every ski area could be as high as 50 °F several days in a row. Famed mountain meteorologist Chris Tomer said that temperatures could be three to four standard deviations above twenty to thirty year averages. After a long winter of historically low snow, with plenty of weak layers present in the snowpack, could Colorado and Utah see a rare wet slab avalanche cycle next weekend?

Wet slab avalanches involve liquid water in the snowpack interacting with a previously formed weak layer, and have the potential to create unusually large, destructive avalanches. Weak layers like layers of facets, buried surface hoar, and depth hoar, may create large avalanche problems throughout the winter, but usually heal overtime. This process can sometimes take weeks to months, but even the weakest types of snow crystals can gain strength over time. Alternately, more snow can bury the weak layers deep enough that it becomes difficult for humans to interact with them, decreasing, but not completely eliminating, the chances of triggering an avalanche involving a weak layer.



Liquid water flowing through the snowpack, either from rain on snow events or from rapid melting, can find these weak layers and flow laterally, undercutting the snowpack. Even though weak layers may have gained strength, they can still be quite porous and far less dense compared with the rest of the snowpack, allowing liquid water to break up remaining bonds between crystals and destroy what little strength the weak layer may have gained. Because liquid water can flow through the entire snowpack, far deeper than what humans on skis or snowmachines can affect, weak layers from early in the season can “wake back up” for another round of avalanche activity, this time with several more months of snow.

In May 2023, a D4 sized wet slab avalanche, capable of destroying small buildings, broke loose in the North Face area of Alyeska, Alaska. The avalanche slid on a weak layer from November, and the crown was between 6 and 10 feet thick, almost the entire winter snowpack. The debris displaced water from several ponds around the Alyeska Hotel, and flooded the bottom terminal of the tram. Ski patrol had been closely monitoring the snowpack, and no one was caught in the historic-sized slide.

Another monster-sized wet slab avalanche occurred in May 2020 at the Yellowstone Club, the private ski club located next to Big Sky, Montana, while the resort was closed during the global pandemic. The crown thickness was between 4 and 9 feet, breaking on weak depth hoar crystals buried in October. Debris from the avalanche hit a few chairlift towers, and was estimated to be almost 50 feet deep in some places. A case study of the avalanche pointed to unseasonably warm temperatures, especially nighttime lows above freezing, as likely contributing to the triggering of this significant avalanche.



Earlier this season, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center reported a large avalanche in the Aspen area, thought to be a wet slide, that broke on a depth hoar layer at the ground. Weather stations in the area reported several days of above freezing temperatures, and snow surfaces next to the avalanche path had melt-freeze crusts on them. Though the avalanche crown was not more than three feet thick, the debris pile was estimated to be more than 60 feet deep in some places, and contained multiple broken trees and large rocks.

Recent observations from Colorado, Utah, and the Tetons have all shown a combination of depth hoar, buried surface hoar, crust and facet combinations from the January drought, or a mix of all three. Depth hoar and buried surface hoar can remain particularly weak and easy for liquid water to destroy, while crusts underneath facet layers can provide an impermeable surface for water to flow along, amplifying the undercutting effect in the weak facet layer. Temperatures could reach 50 °F on Vail Pass and Berthoud Pass on Saturday March 21 and Sunday March 22. Overnight lows could refreeze at Vail Pass, but Berthoud Pass is currently forecasted to stay above 35 °F for several nights in a row. Alta, Utah will see similar high temperatures and possibly even warmer overnight temperatures, and Teton Pass, Wyoming could see up to five straight days above freezing.



Wet slab avalanches are notoriously difficult to forecast, as predicting when enough liquid water is present in the snowpack to cause a problem is a formidable challenge. Though typically associated with late spring melting, the unseasonably warm weather expected next week could lead to a rare March wet slab avalanche cycle. As the high pressure system takes root next week, avalanche forecasters will get a better sense of how much water is beginning to percolate through the snowpack, and if that water is able to reach the weak layers buried in many mountain snowpacks.

More From Zach Armstrong:



How The Epic Pass Changed Skiing: A Data Driven History of Vail Resorts

How Will This Winter Affect the 40 Million People Living in the Colorado River Basin?

Antarctica’s Ice Sheet Is…Growing?

NOAA Launches A.I.-Enhanced Versions of GFS and GEFS Weather Models

History with SnowBrains: The Incredible Notes from a Swiss Avalanche Researcher’s Travels to Western USA in 1949



The post The Western U.S. Could See A Rare Wet Slab Avalanche Cycle Next Weekend appeared first on SnowBrains.

Ссылка на источник: https://snowbrains.com/the-western-u-s-could-see-a-rare-wet-slab-avalanche-cycle-next-weekend/


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